Big 12 in 2016

[Lobot]

Oh come on. It's not over 'til Boren sings.

[red_n_black_attack]

Oh come on. It's not over 'til Boren sings.

Did you just call Boren a fat lady?

[Lobot]

Chuck Carlton at the DMN quoted Bowlsby as saying that there will be in person or phone discussion on expansion in July.

[coach]

They either are being very coy about things as they have already put something in place(low probability), or they are shelving it for the immediate future given the hammer that is the LH network which will drag the conference into implosion in the next 7 or 8 years when the gor expires(high probability). Regardless, i think they wildly miscalculated the amount of negative press the conference would get by hanging out in the wind. That coupled with their earlier defections has damaged their brand, or what is left of it.

[Lobot]

I think the gist of this is they wanted more data after the June meetings and now they have it so they're going to go over it. That's a conference call I wouldn't want to be on. I imagine Texas just steps on everyone else trying to talk.

[coach]

Either that, or they say nothing given they hold all the cards. It seems like a number of the others in the group do their best to move the pack, and then it basically runs into a wall.

[blackattack]

They either are being very coy about things as they have already put something in place(low probability), or they are shelving it for the immediate future given the hammer that is the LH network

It does kind of make me hopeful that they plan to expand and are just being coy about it.

[Lobot]

It does kind of make me hopeful that they plan to expand and are just being coy about it.

That's pretty much been the pattern so far. Cross your fingers. If the conference imploded after the GoR expires it would financially set us up nicely for 8 years even if we take the haircut discount to join.

[bearcatbret]

Everything that I have found through Google makes it sound that the talking heads at ESPN do not want UC. That scares me because ESPN money will do the talking.

[slimm]

Everything that I have found through Google makes it sound that the talking heads at ESPN do not want UC. That scares me because ESPN money will do the talking.

What seems to be the main reasons? I dont see why anyone wouldnt want UC over the schools we are perceived to be up against for expansion. Overall our programs and academics are better than those schools and definitely more entertaining ( most years anyway).

[coach]

I've actually seen the opposite, however, espn's influence is waning as fox sports, private sources and the regular networks get involved. The model is changing so much and so quickly that it's hard to know where this is going other than there is certainly going to be more changes. Espn has overpaid in the past(see lhn) and it's now paying the price.

[Lobot]

Bowlsby now pushing forward. I think he senses the time for discussion has ended.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...lsby/86717604/

[bearcatbret]

BYU still thinks that they are in.... http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2016/7...ould-be-coming I believe if BYU is in, the Big 12 is looking in different directions than to find a dancing partner for WVU.

[red_n_black_attack]

BYU still thinks that they are in.... http://www.vanquishthefoe.com/2016/7...ould-be-coming I believe if BYU is in, the Big 12 is looking in different directions than to find a dancing partner for WVU.

I think BYU would be a great addition to the Big 12 in terms of what they are seeking. A conference network is off the table, which means that the major advantage of market size/tv sets that both BYU and UC have is no longer a factor.

I have not seen any quotes or evidence that getting a travel partner for WVU is not a factor, but to be honest it has always been a smaller factor. I'm trying not to be biased in my opinion and really think the top three choices are Houston, BYU, and UC in no particular order. There is a significant dropoff in program strength (which has become more important to growing Big 12 revenue and getting into the Playoff) after those three teams. To me, this means the Big 12 is unlikely to add four teams unless they want to do it just for the revenue guaranteed in the current tv contracts.


I think Houston is the number 1 target in the current situation due to recent success, ties to old SWC, and improving chances of conference getting into the Playoff with increased SOS.

I think BYU has an advantage over UC in program strength/longevity/name recognition and don't think Sunday play will be an issue. Their major disadvantage is distance and time zones.

I think UC is a close third, buoyed by proximity to WVU given that the program strength/longevity is not as good as BYU or really Houston (though more favorable to Houston). I can see several teams blocking BYU and making a possible path to UC receiving an invite IF they decide to expand.

NET: I think the Big 12 chooses to expand to increase SOS and get added revenue from the guaranteed tv contracts and place UC at having a 20-30% chance of getting an invite if they only expand by two. I am placing the odds significantly higher for Houston (75-85%) and marginally higher for BYU (40-50%).

Either way - I am hoping the Big 12 makes a decision and slows down the talk of expansion. I don't think it will ever go away completely.

[Lobot]

According to Chuck Carlton at the DMN, the date for whatever they are announcing is on July 19. That's Day 2 of the Big 12 Media Days that were already scheduled. The meetings are at the Omni in downtown Dallas.