Late Season Observation

[D.A.H.]

maybe because, when he gets on the court, josh reed is producitve? is he productive because metrics says he is? or is he productive because he hustles and uses his head? or is it a combination? he sees what stats make a difference between winning and losing, and then trys to do those items? no one "hates" statistics. that's a stupid statement. but, i think we all know that old joke: you can twist statistics to back up any position that you want them to back up. using statistics is a help, but its not the end all.

[leo from jersey]

maybe because, when he gets on the court, josh reed is producitve? is he productive because metrics says he is? or is he productive because he hustles and uses his head? or is it a combination? he sees what stats make a difference between winning and losing, and then trys to do those items? no one "hates" statistics. that's a stupid statement. but, i think we all know that old joke: you can twist statistics to back up any position that you want them to back up. using statistics is a help, but its not the end all.

I wished there was a stat for our players chasing around screens instead of fighting through them. There are many things in a stat. It doesn't really account for the ability of different opponents, different schemes or different motivational factors. Those must be adapted to and overcome on the court. The end result shows itself in the stats, but all things are not considered in stats. If I am chasing a good offensive player up and down the court, I may tire. How would that change my shot or my ability to fight for a rebound. I have seen many a player get frustrated by having a good defense played against them and that changes the play. Stats are nice and should get the game plan started, but it is in the heat of the game, where the winning or losing takes place.

When you play against different people from all walks of life you can't do the same thing against every player defensively or offensively. You have to change up the way you go at a player.
Oscar Robertson

[BearKatz]

maybe because, when he gets on the court, josh reed is producitve? is he productive because metrics says he is? or is he productive because he hustles and uses his head? or is it a combination? he sees what stats make a difference between winning and losing, and then trys to do those items? no one "hates" statistics. that's a stupid statement. but, i think we all know that old joke: you can twist statistics to back up any position that you want them to back up. using statistics is a help, but its not the end all.

Well said!

[BearKatz]

I wished there was a stat for our players chasing around screens instead of fighting through them. There are many things in a stat. It doesn't really account for the ability of different opponents, different schemes or different motivational factors. Those must be adapted to and overcome on the court. The end result shows itself in the stats, but all things are not considered in stats. If I am chasing a good offensive player up and down the court, I may tire. How would that change my shot or my ability to fight for a rebound. I have seen many a player get frustrated by having a good defense played against them and that changes the play. Stats are nice and should get the game plan started, but it is in the heat of the game, where the winning or losing takes place.

When you play against different people from all walks of life you can't do the same thing against every player defensively or offensively. You have to change up the way you go at a player.
Oscar Robertson

Couldn't agree more!

[sedz]

maybe because, when he gets on the court, josh reed is producitve? is he productive because metrics says he is? or is he productive because he hustles and uses his head? or is it a combination? he sees what stats make a difference between winning and losing, and then trys to do those items? no one "hates" statistics. that's a stupid statement. but, i think we all know that old joke: you can twist statistics to back up any position that you want them to back up. using statistics is a help, but its not the end all.

Yes. He's productive because the metrics say he is. Now you can debate why he's productive. What he's doing to be productive. But the metrics measure the end result of that. The goal is to impact the score. BPM tells us who is impacting the score. Individual rate stats can give some insight into how they are doing it, but the eye test is often just as good or better at discerning how and why players are productive. It's up to the coaches and players to become productive. But at the end of the day, you have to be affecting the score in games to be productive. BPM measures that better than our eyes and feelings can.

I posted a table of BPM numbers and no one had a comment on that or what the numbers were saying, even if they disagreed. It's just the same old rant about what stats can't do. No attempt at understanding. Intentional ignorance. I consider that hating stats.

[sedz]

I wished there was a stat for our players chasing around screens instead of fighting through them. There are many things in a stat. It doesn't really account for the ability of different opponents, different schemes or different motivational factors. Those must be adapted to and overcome on the court. The end result shows itself in the stats, but all things are not considered in stats. If I am chasing a good offensive player up and down the court, I may tire. How would that change my shot or my ability to fight for a rebound. I have seen many a player get frustrated by having a good defense played against them and that changes the play. Stats are nice and should get the game plan started, but it is in the heat of the game, where the winning or losing takes place.

When you play against different people from all walks of life you can't do the same thing against every player defensively or offensively. You have to change up the way you go at a player.
Oscar Robertson

The end result is all I'm looking at with BPM. I'm not disregarding anything you say after that. You talk about tiring, fighting, and the heat of the game as intangibles. I'm not saying to discount any of that! The players have to navigate all that and the coach has to guide them. The metrics tell us who is ultimately being successful in turning intangibles into scoring margin. And what areas of our game are better or worse than other teams.

This thread started as a discussion of our roster's progression or regression from last year. We have a well established statistical tool to measure that so I compiled a table. That's it. Why come in with an oft repeated polemic against stats in general?

[BearKatz]

The end result is all I'm looking at with BPM. I'm not disregarding anything you say after that. You talk about tiring, fighting, and the heat of the game as intangibles. I'm not saying to discount any of that! The players have to navigate all that and the coach has to guide them. The metrics tell us who is ultimately being successful in turning intangibles into scoring margin. And what areas of our game are better or worse than other teams.

This thread started as a discussion of our roster's progression or regression from last year. We have a well established statistical tool to measure that so I compiled a table. That's it. Why come in with an oft repeated polemic against stats in general?

Sedz... Bottom line, stats don't tell the whole story, correct? I believe that's the point some of the other members are making.

You can have a valued opinion with the eye test!

Iv'e watched the same players over the last few years get called for a moving screen, do we stat for that? Why was he not set? To lazy or slow to get over and get his feet set?

Iv'e watched the team UC is playing shoot a FT, and the same UC player not boxout and the opposing team grabs the RB. Do we have a stat for that? The UC player was simply out hustled and to lazy to get in position. I don't know if theirs a stat for that or not? You do a nice job, and the effort shows.

It doesn't HELP getting angry and calling members ignorant or intenionally not understanding the metrics you post! Not everyone is going to agree with them! Everyone has an opinion and is aloud to rant. Isn't that what forums are for?

[leo from jersey]

The end result is all I'm looking at with BPM. I'm not disregarding anything you say after that. You talk about tiring, fighting, and the heat of the game as intangibles. I'm not saying to discount any of that! The players have to navigate all that and the coach has to guide them. The metrics tell us who is ultimately being successful in turning intangibles into scoring margin. And what areas of our game are better or worse than other teams.

This thread started as a discussion of our roster's progression or regression from last year. We have a well established statistical tool to measure that so I compiled a table. That's it. Why come in with an oft repeated polemic against stats in general?

as I said being subjective, stats are good but skewed. You consider each opponent separately, adapt your game to your opponent and be willing to adapt and overcome. My beloved Bearcats are failing to do this unless we just got bad players. I watched many last year and I saw winners and not slackers. The stats don't always tell the deeper story. Years ago I know from personal experience that a certain scorer could only score from his left. It was easy to adjust. His stats said double figures, but when studying him, it was easy to stop and then frustrate him. Sure there were some fouls pushing him around on defense, but he game stats and all were gone. We won. Maybe the game has changed in 60 years, but I have followed my kids and grand kids now and I am seeing basically the same game. Once again, I let the greatest BB player ever have his say:

Some players are more physical than others, some play with more finesse. Some are just really great all-around players. So you have to change your game.
Oscar Robertson

[sedz]

Iv'e watched the same players over the last few years get called for a moving screen, do we stat for that?

Yes. A moving screen is a foul and a turnover. It shows up in foul rate and turnover rate individually. It also means no points were scored that possession, which shows up as negative offensive BPM.

Iv'e watched the team UC is playing shoot a FT, and the same UC player not boxout and the opposing team grabs the RB. Do we have a stat for that?

Yes.That's an offensive rebound for the opposing team. It reduces our team defensive rebounding rate, and the individual defensive rebounding rate for each player on the floor. If it's a regular issue for that player, he will have a poor defensive rebounding rate. If the other team scores on the second chance, it shows up as negative defensive BPM.

It doesn't HELP getting angry and calling members ignorant or intenionally not understanding the metrics you post! Not everyone is going to agree with them! Everyone has an opinion and is aloud to rant. Isn't that what forums are for?

I chose my words carefully. While everyone is entitled to their opinions, I don't believe anyone has taken even a few minutes to learn what BPM (or any other advanced statistic) involves. Yet several posters are asserting what they can't do. That is intentional ignorance. You don't have to understand advance stats, most people don't. That's ok. Don't respond, or ask (as you have), or make a separate point. But making claims about something you have chosen to be uninformed on is the very definition of ignorance.

[sedz]

The stats don't always tell the deeper story.

I never said they did. No one has.

I think you do have an emotional response to seeing advanced statistics, which is why I called it hate. You go beyond my actual words and build strawmen. Rather than respond to my actual point, you feel the need to attack the general concept of advanced basketball statistics. And the point gets lost and we end up mudslinging (I'm just as guilty). It's really annoying.

[London 'Cat]

I’ve seen enough of this back and forth. I can and will close the thread if you guys cannot remain respectful and civil. Knock it off or suffer the consequences.

[leo from jersey]

I never said they did. No one has.

I think you do have an emotional response to seeing advanced statistics, which is why I called it hate. You go beyond my actual words and build strawmen. Rather than respond to my actual point, you feel the need to attack the general concept of advanced basketball statistics. And the point gets lost and we end up mudslinging (I'm just as guilty). It's really annoying.

groovy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pharmfam]

I’ve seen enough of this back and forth. I can and will close the thread if you guys cannot remain respectful and civil. Knock it off or suffer the consequences.

Thank you.

[BearKatz]

I’ve seen enough of this back and forth. I can and will close the thread if you guys cannot remain respectful and civil. Knock it off or suffer the consequences.

Couldn't agree more, thank you!

[leeraymond]

For all of you advanced analytics lovers, here's the progression/regression of our roster measured in BPM against top 100 competition.

Player	2024	2025	Change
Reed	1.3	7.8	6.5
Page	-0.5	1.5	2.0
Day Day	0.0	1.3	1.3
Skillings	6.0	6.9	0.9
Mitchell	5.0	5.9	0.9
Simas	3.2	1.9	-1.3
Jizzle	3.0	0.3	-2.7
Aziz	4.6	1.0	-3.6
Hickman	0.7	-8.0	-8.7

We tailor our offense to Jizzle, Aziz, and Simas. All three have regressed from last year. Reed and Page have shown growth but aren't seeing starter minutes. Despite his recent struggles, Skillings remains our best player and he has improved this year. Hickman is some combination of injured or just not a good fit for our scheme.

Hey Sedz, do you think that UC's coaching staff use Box Plus Minus (BPM) analysis to measure player performance? It probably could help with who should be on the floor. Right now, UC can use all of the help that it can get. Hope UC can win one at Utah.